Wed, Feb 16, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 110 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 429 |
| CBJ | 17 | 16 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:52LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:34CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 13:05LAKAndrei LoktionovAssists: Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 15:14CBJRick NashAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:08LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Michal Handzus, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:37CBJKris RussellAssists: Jakub Voracek, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 2. LAK Michal Handzus stopped
- 3. CBJ Matt Calvert stopped
- 4. LAK Jarret Stoll scored
- 5. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:46CBJGrant Clitsome: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:55CBJChris Clark: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:24LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:31LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:28CBJKris Russell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll11:05
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Handzus – Kopitar – Simmonds12:35
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Brown – Loktionov – Clifford10:10
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Lewis – Westgarth4:17
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty19:29
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Greene – Martinez9:38
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Johnson16:01
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClark – Pahlsson – Murray10:33
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Nash – Voracek8:09
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Umberger – Nash – Voracek3:37
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Calvert3:48
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Clitsome – Russell12:47
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Hejda – Stralman17:51
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Methot14:01
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).