Fri, Feb 18, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 111 | 16 | 223 |
| CAR | 28 | 013 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12CARChad LaRoseAssists: Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 6:37CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jay Harrison · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:57PHIBlair BettsSHAssists: Darroll Powe, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 14:49PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Daniel Brière, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 16:57CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:36PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:31PHIChris Pronger: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:37PHIAndreas Nodl: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:27CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:04CARJiri Tlusty: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44PHIVille Leino: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:01PHISean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:01PHIJody Shelley: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:45CARTuomo Ruutu: Charging2 min
- P3 12:01PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Carter – Giroux4:34
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Carcillo – Versteeg2:25
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – van Riemsdyk2:33
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Nodl – Leino9:52
xG 0.09–0.36 (19%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle2:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Pronger – Timonen2:25
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros7:15
xG 0.37–0.40 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Jokinen – Staal8:33
xG 1.20–0.20 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Samsonov – Tlusty – Sutter11:56
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner7:52
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Bodie – Samson3:51
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain12:56
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Harrison – Carson8:05
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen12:41
xG 0.70–0.58 (54%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).