Fri, Feb 18, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 211 | 112 | 17 | 430 |
| FLA | 115 | 17 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 6:29DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Jiri Hudler · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 16:53FLARadek DvorakAssists: Mike Weaver, Marty Reasoner · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 3:29DETPavel DatsyukUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 19:43FLADennis WidemanPPAssists: Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 9:36FLAStephen WeissAssists: David Booth, Jack Skille · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:28DETTodd BertuzziGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:45FLABryan McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:37DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:04DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:09FLABryan Allen: Kneeing2 min
- P2 19:38DETRuslan Salei: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:25DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:25FLACory Stillman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Hudler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler9:56
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader5:50
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Draper – Eaves – Helm8:11
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen12:38
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart12:37
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Salei – Kronwall10:48
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Salei – Ericsson2:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Booth – Skille10:23
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins12:12
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Stillman – Olesz – Santorelli9:32
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Bernier – McArdle – Timmins5:16
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Ellerby11:08
xG 0.77–0.26 (74%)attempts 19–5goals 0–2
- McCabe – Ellerby2:16
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Allen9:36
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).