Fri, Feb 18, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 317 | 07 | 436 |
| CHI | 213 | 117 | 010 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22CBJMatt CalvertUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:32CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:04CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:38CBJAntoine VermettePPAssists: Rick Nash, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P2 12:28CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Matt Calvert, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–2
- P2 15:32CBJAnton StralmanPPGWGAssists: Kristian Huselius, R.J. Umberger · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 15:53CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:01CHIJake Dowell: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:52CBJJared Boll: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:24CHITomas Kopecky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:08CHIViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:25CHINick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:32CBJAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopecky won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – MacKenzie – Boll4:56
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Nash – Voracek11:10
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Murray12:39
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Huselius – Umberger – Calvert6:42
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman18:11
xG 1.18–1.00 (54%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
- Russell – Moore8:23
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Clitsome16:40
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Bolland – Frolik10:03
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane15:20
xG 1.08–0.66 (62%)attempts 24–11goals 3–1
- Hossa – Bolland – Brouwer3:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bickell – Brouwer7:45
xG 0.02–0.66 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy15:18
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson11:51
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Keith3:22
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).