Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 010 | 07 | 00 | 1 | 122 |
| TOR | 013 | 017 | 013 | 04 | 0 | 047 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
- 3. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 5. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:08OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:04TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:31OTTAlex Kovalev: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:31TORJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:31OTTFrancis Lessard: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:23OTTNick Foligno: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:33OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:48OTTFrancis Lessard: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:40OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P3 6:00TORChristian Hanson: Interference2 min
- P3 16:14TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- OT 2:04OTTFilip Kuba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Condra6:04
xG 0.60–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Shannon – Foligno2:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Foligno6:43
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler5:50
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:13
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Carkner – Benoit9:43
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee15:59
xG 0.10–0.59 (14%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:01
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:20
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Crabb – Brent – Rosehill3:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Boyce – Hanson4:29
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn15:20
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda8:51
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie14:26
xG 0.60–0.61 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).