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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 0 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:57Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 1:50Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer
  4. P1 3:03Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 4:05Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  6. P1 5:54Shot by Crabb, saved by Anderson
  7. P1 8:05Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 8:29Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 9:20Shot by Lessard, saved by Reimer
  10. P1 11:24Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 12:07Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  12. P1 12:08Condra: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin, Aulie · OTT Kuba, Neil, Condra, Smith, Karlsson

  13. P1 12:19Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer5v4
  14. P1 13:57Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer5v4
  15. P1 14:04Lupul: Too many men on the ice (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Lupul, MacArthur, Grabovski, Gunnarsson, Schenn · OTT Phillips, Spezza, Michalek, Lee

  16. P1 16:13Shot by Regin, saved by Reimer
  17. P1 16:21Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson
  18. P1 17:02Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  19. P1 17:21Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  20. P1 17:26Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson
  21. P1 17:31Kovalev: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Sjostrom, Rosehill, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Schenn · OTT Kovalev, Carkner, Benoit, Foligno, Smith

  22. P1 17:31Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson5v4
  23. P1 17:31Rosehill: Misconduct (10 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Sjostrom, Rosehill, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Schenn · OTT Kovalev, Carkner, Benoit, Foligno, Smith

  24. P1 17:31Lessard: Misconduct (10 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Sjostrom, Rosehill, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Schenn · OTT Kovalev, Carkner, Benoit, Foligno, Smith

  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:21Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  28. P2 0:33Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  29. P2 0:43Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer
  30. P2 1:58Shot by Regin, saved by Reimer
  31. P2 2:29Shot by Shannon, saved by Reimer
  32. P2 2:42Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer
  33. P2 3:34Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 4:23Shot by Bozak, saved by Anderson
  35. P2 4:23Foligno: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Aulie, Bozak · OTT Neil, Carkner, Benoit, Condra, Smith

  36. P2 5:15Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson5v4
  37. P2 6:57Shot by Sjostrom, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 7:33Shot by Brent, saved by Anderson
  39. P2 7:33Carkner: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Komisarek, Crabb, Brent, Boyce, Lebda · OTT Kovalev, Carkner, Benoit, Regin, Greening

  40. P2 7:33Shot by Brent, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 7:38Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson5v4
  42. P2 8:01Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer5v4
  43. P2 8:24Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson5v4
  44. P2 9:29Shot by Kulemin, saved by Anderson5v4
  45. P2 10:15Shot by Aulie, saved by Anderson
  46. P2 12:19Shot by Schenn, saved by Anderson
  47. P2 12:48Lessard: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Komisarek, Crabb, Brent, Rosehill, Lebda · OTT Phillips, Lessard, Shannon, Lee, Greening

  48. P2 12:48Rosehill: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Komisarek, Crabb, Brent, Rosehill, Lebda · OTT Phillips, Lessard, Shannon, Lee, Greening

  49. P2 12:52Shot by Crabb, saved by Anderson
  50. P2 14:22Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  51. P2 14:29Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer
  52. P2 14:36Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  53. P2 14:46Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  54. P2 16:43Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  55. P2 16:54Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  56. P2 18:29Shot by Schenn, saved by Anderson
  57. P2 19:50Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  58. P2 0:00Period end
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 0:40Phillips: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Bozak · OTT Kovalev, Phillips, Regin, Lee, Foligno

  61. P3 1:48Shot by Lebda, saved by Anderson5v4
  62. P3 4:20Shot by Komisarek, saved by Anderson
  63. P3 4:33Shot by Rosehill, saved by Anderson
  64. P3 5:13Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  65. P3 5:52Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  66. P3 6:00Hanson: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Sjostrom, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Hanson · OTT Carkner, Spezza, Benoit, Michalek, Condra

  67. P3 7:27Shot by Aulie, saved by Anderson4v5
  68. P3 7:50Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer4v5
  69. P3 8:16Shot by Crabb, saved by Anderson
  70. P3 10:32Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  71. P3 11:07Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  72. P3 11:12Shot by Schenn, saved by Anderson
  73. P3 13:12Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  74. P3 13:18Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  75. P3 14:40Shot by Aulie, saved by Anderson
  76. P3 14:52Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  77. P3 15:17Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  78. P3 15:30Shot by Foligno, saved by Reimer
  79. P3 15:47Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  80. P3 16:14Phaneuf: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Boyce, Kessel, Aulie · OTT Neil, Carkner, Greening, Smith, Karlsson

  81. P3 16:51Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer4v5
  82. P3 19:08Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. OT 0:00Period start
  85. OT 1:19Shot by Kulemin, saved by Anderson4v4
  86. OT 2:04Kuba: Hooking (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Boyce, Gunnarsson · OTT Kuba, Benoit, Foligno, Condra

  87. OT 2:14Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v3
  88. OT 3:02Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v3
  89. OT 3:06Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v3
  90. OT 5:00Period end
  91. SO Period start
  92. SO Shot by Bozak, saved by Andersonother
  93. SO Shot by Kovalev, saved by Reimerother
  94. SO Shot by Grabovski, saved by Andersonother
  95. SO Goal by Spezza, unassistedother
  96. SO Period end
  97. SO Final