Sat, Feb 19, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 315 | 04 | 16 | 425 |
| CAR | 08 | 08 | 19 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Mark Fayne, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:17NJDHenrik TallinderGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Nick Palmieri · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 16:14NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–0
- P3 6:49CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jamie McBain, Jerome Samson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:43NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:17CARChad LaRose: Broken stick2 min
- P1 12:13CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:36NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36CARJussi Jokinen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:13NJDHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min
- P3 3:09NJDAnssi Salmela: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:09CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:09CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:13NJDMark Fayne: Interference2 min
- P3 14:16NJDDainius Zubrus: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus10:42
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 3–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri9:02
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Pelley – Zharkov8:07
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Arnott – Tedenby – Josefson6:34
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne12:54
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- White – Volchenkov13:13
xG 0.57–0.36 (62%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Greene – Salmela14:34
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Bodie – Samson4:55
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner9:28
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Tlusty – Sutter9:09
xG 0.02–0.30 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Jokinen – Staal10:13
xG 0.12–0.65 (16%)attempts 8–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Joslin2:17
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Carson – Joslin6:22
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Harrison – McBain3:00
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).