Tue, Feb 22, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 118 | 111 | 114 | 03 | 1 | 446 |
| CAR | 112 | 07 | 210 | 04 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Sean Avery · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 16:35CARJay HarrisonAssists: Brandon Sutter · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:46NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 3:32CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jamie McBain, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 6:10CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jay Harrison, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:10NYRWojtek WolskiAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 2. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 5. CAR Sergei Samsonov stopped
- 6. NYR Wojtek Wolski scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:43NYRVinny Prospal: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:15CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:26CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41NYRBrian Boyle: Kneeing2 min
- P2 17:46CARErik Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:27NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Stepan – Zuccarello12:29
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:43
xG 0.91–0.50 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Prospal – Christensen – Boyle9:31
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Avery – Newbury – Prust6:58
xG 0.28–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh19:35
xG 1.56–0.95 (62%)attempts 23–19goals 2–1
- Del Zotto – Gilroy6:50
xG 0.69–0.19 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:24
xG 0.15–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Jokinen – Staal11:55
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Bodie – Samson3:52
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Tlusty – Sutter9:11
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner10:07
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Carson6:25
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Gleason – McBain4:07
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen5:35
xG 0.28–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).