Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 118 | 213 | 112 | 443 |
| DET | 010 | 215 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.46 xG1–0
- P2 7:06DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Jiri Hudler, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 14:08SJSRyane CloweUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:42DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Jiri Hudler, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 18:43SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–2
- P3 13:12SJSDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 18:09DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:46DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:28DETNicklas Lidstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:19SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:40DETJiri Hudler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:43SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hudler won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Setoguchi – Couture7:50
xG 0.83–0.03 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi5:50
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Eager – Pavelski – Mitchell2:41
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Wellwood – McCarthy2:18
xG 0.02–0.02 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers12:47
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- White – Vlasic2:23
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Wallin – White14:34
xG 1.02–1.06 (49%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler14:45
xG 1.84–0.30 (86%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm2:30
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm3:36
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader4:38
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kronwall6:14
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson9:03
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Salei – Ericsson4:55
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).