Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 011 | 03 | 020 |
| CBJ | 013 | 04 | 413 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:11CBJRick NashGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P3 4:29CBJMatt CalvertPPAssists: Kris Russell, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 9:49CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kris Russell, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 19:09CBJRick NashPPAssists: Antoine Vermette, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.24 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:00NSHJ-P Dumont: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:24CBJKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P1 19:48NSHShane O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
- P2 9:42NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:26NSHShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:56NSHDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:56CBJGrant Clitsome: Kneeing2 min
- P3 18:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:32CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Legwand – Hornqvist8:06
xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dumont – Tootoo – Wilson6:32
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling7:09
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Svatos6:58
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson11:46
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Blum2:40
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Blum10:45
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Nash – Voracek10:10
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Moreau – Murray – Boll8:05
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Calvert9:31
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett8:54
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Methot13:01
xG 0.94–0.15 (87%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Russell13:46
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hejda – Methot2:15
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).