Wed, Feb 23, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 06 | 113 | 29 | 328 |
| TBL | 519 | 212 | 18 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59TBLTeddy PurcellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:01TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Johan Harju, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 7:54TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–3
- P1 14:55TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Brett Clark, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.16 xG0–4
- P1 17:54TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 2:43TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–6
- P2 8:17TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–7
- P2 12:28PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 4:52TBLAdam HallAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–8
- P3 9:16PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Shane Doan, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–8
- P3 10:44PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.02 xG3–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:33PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:28PHXNolan Yonkman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:55PHXShane Doan: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37PHXMichal Rozsival: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:50TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P3 19:40TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40PHXKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Ebbett – Turris5:34
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski8:28
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal3:30
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Stempniak – Boedker3:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson3:47
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson6:38
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Yonkman – Lepisto2:47
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Purcell8:07
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 8–14goals 3–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim10:46
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Thompson2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Harju – Stamkos3:58
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones12:36
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Jones2:50
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Brewer13:15
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).