Fri, Feb 25, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 27 | 011 | 110 | 328 |
| CBJ | 212 | 213 | 19 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34PHXDavid SchlemkoAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 7:57PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 14:50CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 18:22CBJJakub VoracekPPAssists: Rick Nash, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 2:37CBJMatt CalvertPPAssists: Kris Russell · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 8:52CBJMatt CalvertGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 3:27CBJMatt CalvertAssists: R.J. Umberger, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 18:24PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:19PHXSami Lepisto: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:54PHXNolan Yonkman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:34CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Holding2 min
- P1 16:44PHXEric Belanger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:35PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P2 0:48PHXLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:29CBJKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P2 10:58PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P2 19:00CBJChris Clark: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00PHXLee Stempniak: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:09PHXNolan Yonkman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:09PHXNolan Yonkman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38CBJMatt Calvert: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54CBJAnton Stralman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:31PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:28CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
- P3 19:45CBJJan Hejda: Clipping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Boedker8:02
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak9:36
xG 0.36–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Bissonnette – Ebbett3:15
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski7:50
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Lepisto6:59
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Yonkman – Schlemko6:05
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson3:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Umberger – Calvert8:33
xG 0.79–0.17 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Moreau – Murray – Boll5:25
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett6:20
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Vermette – Nash – Voracek9:14
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman12:37
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Tyutin – Methot10:15
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell11:04
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).