Fri, Feb 25, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Florida Panthers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 014 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 232 |
| ATL | 013 | 114 | 014 | 05 | 1 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Radek Dvorak, Chris Higgins · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 17:12ATLBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 2. FLA Mike Santorelli scored
- 3. ATL Blake Wheeler scored
- 4. FLA David Booth stopped
- 5. ATL Andrew Ladd stopped
- 6. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 7. ATL Niclas Bergfors stopped
- 8. FLA Michal Repik stopped
- 9. ATL Nik Antropov stopped
- 10. FLA Marty Reasoner stopped
- 11. ATL Evander Kane stopped
- 12. FLA Steve Bernier scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:32ATLJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:09FLAScott Timmins: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:28ATLEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09FLAMichal Repik: Interference2 min
- P3 6:35FLADavid Booth: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:01ATLBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- OT 4:54ATLZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Santorelli – Timmins9:05
xG 0.95–0.19 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Booth9:31
xG 0.69–0.23 (74%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Thomas2:08
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Thomas – Repik4:16
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Sulzer12:25
xG 0.92–0.27 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison11:59
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Weaver2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestModin – Thorburn – Bergfors2:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Modin – Thorburn – Stapleton2:24
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane8:21
xG 0.03–0.07 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:13
xG 0.61–1.03 (37%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Stuart11:58
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:15
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:49
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).