Sat, Feb 26, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 212 | 211 | 06 | 1 | 640 |
| TOR | 111 | 18 | 311 | 01 | 0 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:43TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–1
- P1 19:13PITAlex KovalevAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:31TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Mike Brown · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 16:00PITMark LetestuPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 19:44PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Cooke · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 2:52TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 3:27TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 6:34PITMax TalbotSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 7:27TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Tim Brent, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 9:08PITMike RuppAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 3. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 4. PIT Alex Kovalev scored
- 5. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:50PITAlex Kovalev: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:15TORJay Rosehill: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:02PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:28PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:56PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34PITJoe Vitale: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:32TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12PITMark Letestu: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:09PITAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:09TORColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:55PITZbynek Michalek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Dupuis – Jeffrey6:05
xG 0.52–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Rupp – Vitale3:40
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Conner – Letestu5:10
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Staal11:28
xG 0.64–0.58 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Letang12:33
xG 1.38–0.60 (70%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Lovejoy11:19
xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Strait9:06
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Brent – Rosehill3:46
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Brown12:43
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak8:48
xG 0.24–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–15goals 1–2
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:23
xG 0.65–0.97 (40%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Schenn15:23
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Aulie15:46
xG 0.76–1.05 (42%)attempts 10–21goals 2–2
- Komisarek – Lebda9:53
xG 0.12–0.47 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).