Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 05 | 17 | 219 |
| NYR | 04 | 19 | 010 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steve Downie · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:42NYRBrandon PrustSHAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brian Boyle · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 2:40TBLVincent LecavalierPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:03TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:43TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:42NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39NYRErik Christensen: Interference2 min
- P2 11:59NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:11NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:04NYRBrian Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:22NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
- P3 13:12TBLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Thompson – Tyrell2:32
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell5:07
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:08
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Thompson2:40
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Jones12:57
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Bergeron5:48
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Christensen – Boyle8:57
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:34
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Avery – Newbury – Prust2:44
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov7:56
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh14:42
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- McCabe – Eminger9:18
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sauer – Gilroy11:06
xG 0.36–0.78 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).