Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Atlanta Thrashers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 05 | 06 | 01 | 224 |
| ATL | 011 | 011 | 220 | 11 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 8:34TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P3 0:23ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.51 xG2–1
- P3 15:24ATLTim StapletonAssists: Anthony Stewart, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.33 xG2–2
- OT 2:31ATLRon HainseyGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:00TORTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:08TORBrett Lebda: Interference2 min
- P1 19:35ATLChris Mason: Holding2 min
- P2 1:35ATLEvander Kane: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:23ATLAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:00TORTim Brent: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:18TORKeith Aulie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:15ATLNik Antropov: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thorburn won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Crabb – Brent6:07
xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:57
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Brown9:27
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak8:49
xG 0.89–1.51 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Lebda8:15
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie15:11
xG 0.62–0.91 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn13:04
xG 0.11–1.25 (8%)attempts 4–22goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:53
xG 1.23–0.20 (86%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Kane5:56
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Boulton – Stapleton – Machacek2:34
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Modin – Thorburn – Bergfors2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian11:31
xG 1.72–0.04 (98%)attempts 24–4goals 1–0
- Oduya – Stuart9:49
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:10
xG 0.92–0.88 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).