Mon, Feb 28, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 7, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 310 | 112 | 35 | 727 |
| LAK | 114 | 011 | 314 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09LAKMichal HandzusPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 6:37DETDrew MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 7:07DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Jiri Hudler · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 18:48DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Mike Modano, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 19:18DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 2:01DETDarren HelmSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 5:53DETDrew MillerAssists: Kris Draper, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–1
- P3 10:22DETJiri HudlerAssists: Jakub Kindl, Todd Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.05 xG7–1
- P3 12:26LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–2
- P3 18:55LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.17 xG7–3
- P3 19:39LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Matt Greene · Tip-in, 0.10 xG7–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:17DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33LAKMatt Greene: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:44LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:23DETJiri Hudler: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58DETRuslan Salei: Holding2 min
- P2 18:33LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:15DETJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:15LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestModano – Holmstrom – Abdelkader7:46
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm10:35
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Hudler11:03
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Filppula9:37
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:51
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Salei – Stuart2:17
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart10:08
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Stoll – Brown4:02
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll7:41
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Richardson – Kopitar6:10
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds2:50
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson13:27
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Mitchell – Doughty15:12
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Greene – Martinez10:06
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).