Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 16 | 326 |
| NYR | 05 | 116 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Tim Connolly · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 13:00BUFBrad BoyesPPAssists: Paul Gaustad, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 13:45NYRErik ChristensenPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:45BUFJochen HechtGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Steve Montador · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 6:05NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:00NYRMichael Sauer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51NYRWojtek Wolski: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:59BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 11:24NYRWojtek Wolski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11BUFMike Weber: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:09BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:09NYRArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:51BUFSteve Montador: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Christensen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Vanek – Stafford8:11
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Gaustad – Pominville9:24
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grier – McCormick – Kaleta7:28
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Connolly – Boyes – Ennis10:24
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Myers17:25
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Weber12:47
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Montador – Sekera14:24
xG 0.53–0.89 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:35
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello11:41
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Avery – Newbury – Prust3:30
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Christensen – Boyle6:44
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh19:08
xG 1.28–0.53 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Eminger – Gilroy8:27
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sauer – McDonagh2:21
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).