Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 1, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 16 | 015 | 01 | 129 |
| WSH | 011 | 017 | 112 | 12 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:08NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 19:12WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Jason Arnott, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- OT 1:55WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:01WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:08NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:19NYIJustin DiBenedetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:19WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 16:11WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:31
xG 0.93–0.69 (57%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Comeau – Bailey – DiBenedetto9:27
xG 0.27–0.39 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner12:43
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin3:15
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Katic6:56
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wishart – Hillen11:36
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:20
xG 0.92–0.90 (51%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Laich – Semin13:29
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon7:50
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Knuble – Chimera – Johansson7:52
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sturm – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:14
xG 0.43–0.51 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Wideman14:56
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Erskine – Schultz13:20
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:12
xG 0.65–1.52 (30%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).