Tue, Mar 1, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 117 | 018 | 142 |
| CAR | 28 | 09 | 05 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25CARCory StillmanAssists: Erik Cole, Joni Pitkanen · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:55CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Cory Stillman, Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:58FLAStephen WeissAssists: David Booth, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:29CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:29FLAHugh Jessiman: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:40FLADarcy Hordichuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:43CAREric Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 16:20FLAMichal Repik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – McArdle – Repik12:51
xG 1.43–0.27 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bernier – Santorelli11:35
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jessiman – Booth – Timmins2:30
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Booth – Bergfors12:39
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Ellerby18:01
xG 1.88–0.22 (89%)attempts 30–16goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Kulikov13:35
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison14:27
xG 1.06–0.52 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Dwyer – Bodie – Samson6:00
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner12:25
xG 0.78–1.04 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal16:36
xG 0.54–1.03 (34%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Tlusty – Sutter12:08
xG 0.24–1.38 (15%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Gleason18:09
xG 0.86–1.28 (40%)attempts 22–30goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – McBain19:06
xG 0.72–1.25 (37%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Allen – Harrison13:21
xG 0.08–1.41 (5%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).