Tue, Mar 1, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 6, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 116 | 05 | 58 | 629 |
| STL | 07 | 07 | 011 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:20CGYAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 4:59CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Brendan Morrison, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 6:58CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 10:48CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Brendan Morrison, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 13:58CGYRobyn RegehrPPAssists: Brendan Morrison, Rene Bourque · Slap, 0.03 xG5–0
- P3 19:55CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:25STLCam Janssen: Charging2 min
- P2 7:33CGYTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:54STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 16:43CGYCory Sarich: Holding2 min
- P3 5:50STLKevin Shattenkirk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:46STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:46CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:42STLChris Stewart: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jackman – Stajan – Bourque10:23
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross9:04
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Backlund10:42
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay12:08
xG 0.33–1.06 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- Staios – Babchuk14:09
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester15:38
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano12:57
xG 0.23–0.97 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – D'Agostini13:17
xG 1.12–0.23 (83%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Steen – Crombeen – Porter9:33
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Janssen – Cracknell – Reaves6:12
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund10:04
xG 0.26–0.26 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak15:20
xG 1.21–0.30 (80%)attempts 27–5goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo15:24
xG 0.39–0.24 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).