Wed, Mar 2, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Minnesota Wild 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 010 | 114 | 134 |
| NYI | 217 | 216 | 08 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31NYIBlake ComeauPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:37NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Michael Grabner, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 0:41NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Matt Martin, Bruno Gervais · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 16:05NYIAndrew MacDonaldPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 11:33MINJohn MaddenAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Martin Havlat · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:34MINNick Schultz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:32NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:23MINCal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:23NYITrevor Gillies: Checking from behind5 min
- P2 2:23NYITrevor Gillies: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:23NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:37NYIJack Hillen: Clipping2 min
- P2 15:41MINClayton Stoner: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01MINCal Clutterbuck: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 19:32MINWarren Peters: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Cullen – Miettinen8:12
xG 0.73–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Ortmeyer3:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Ortmeyer – Brodziak2:02
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Havlat – Peters – Bouchard5:44
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon10:55
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Spurgeon2:47
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky13:04
xG 0.79–0.87 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:51
xG 1.51–0.56 (73%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:07
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Konopka – Martin – DiBenedetto2:47
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – DiBenedetto2:32
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKatic – Hillen10:54
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Gervais – Katic3:47
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Wishart – Hamonic8:43
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).