Thu, Mar 3, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 28 | 18 | 319 |
| NYR | 18 | 017 | 016 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13NYRSean AveryAssists: Erik Christensen, Vinny Prospal · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:36MINKyle BrodziakPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 12:36MINCasey WellmanGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Andrew Brunette · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 8:15MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Martin Havlat, Kyle Brodziak · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:11MINJose Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:04MINCal Clutterbuck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:08NYRErik Christensen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:05MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:32MINBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00MINMartin Havlat: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Peters – Wellman2:48
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:01
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Madden – Clutterbuck5:18
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck3:19
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Spurgeon12:12
xG 1.01–1.05 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns13:58
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:44
xG 0.22–1.25 (15%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:44
xG 1.01–0.12 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello11:25
xG 1.06–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Prospal – Avery – Christensen4:51
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust8:42
xG 0.17–0.84 (17%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Gilroy8:24
xG 1.13–0.19 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Girardi14:46
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Sauer – Gilroy2:09
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).