Thu, Mar 3, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Ottawa Senators 3, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 06 | 210 | 327 |
| ATL | 016 | 012 | 115 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56OTTColin GreeningAssists: Brian Lee, Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P3 1:00OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ryan Shannon · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 6:46ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 11:21OTTNick FolignoAssists: Derek Smith, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:30ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:30OTTFrancis Lessard: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:59OTTBrian Lee: Holding2 min
- P2 10:07ATLRadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stapleton won the faceoff against Shannon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler10:56
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Winchester2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lessard – Potulny – Winchester5:05
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith12:40
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Lee14:02
xG 1.13–0.43 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Smith12:44
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Kuba – Karlsson14:34
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:48
xG 1.36–0.61 (69%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Antropov – Kane7:35
xG 0.56–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Boulton – Schremp – Maxwell5:54
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Stewart – Stapleton5:20
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart12:34
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian16:48
xG 0.91–0.76 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:27
xG 1.10–1.13 (49%)attempts 29–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).