Thu, Mar 3, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 012 | 05 | 127 |
| SJS | 115 | 15 | 18 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Ian White, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 18:19DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Mike Modano, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:54SJSDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 15:48SJSPatrick MarleauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:58DETKris Draper: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:10SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:59SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:07SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:07DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:14DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:43SJSTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 13:07DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Abdelkader – Helm2:41
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Draper – Hudler – Helm2:24
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Filppula3:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Abdelkader4:36
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall2:18
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl8:30
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:41
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Heatley – Clowe6:00
xG 1.16–0.02 (99%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture5:22
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Setoguchi – Couture4:24
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi5:33
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Vlasic3:10
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Demers12:53
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Murray – Braun14:36
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).