Fri, Mar 4, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Rangers 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 29 | 110 | 427 |
| OTT | 08 | 010 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:08NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Sean Avery · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:26NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Wojtek Wolski · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 6:38NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–0
- P3 2:25NYRDerek StepanAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 4:56OTTSergei GoncharPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:17NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P1 11:45OTTMarek Svatos: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:13NYRMats Zuccarello: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:49OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:28NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:06NYRMatt Gilroy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:51OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:52OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:58
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:43
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:33
xG 1.05–0.93 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Prospal – Avery – Christensen8:45
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 1–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy13:23
xG 1.00–0.17 (86%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- McCabe – Eminger11:30
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Staal – Girardi16:14
xG 0.61–1.00 (38%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler13:20
xG 0.99–0.63 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra6:59
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lessard – Potulny – Winchester4:37
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith8:50
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Smith8:45
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee10:47
xG 0.81–0.95 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Gonchar – Phillips2:55
xG 0.01–0.43 (3%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).