Fri, Mar 4, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 09 | 16 | 220 |
| CHI | 29 | 09 | 311 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:23CAREric StaalAssists: Cory Stillman, Erik Cole · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 9:51CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 2:50CHIRyan JohnsonGWGAssists: Chris Campoli, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:57CHIDave BollandAssists: Marian Hossa, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 7:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 12:09CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Joe Corvo, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:16CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game2 min
- P2 9:28CHIPatrick Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 14:36CARJoni Pitkanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:32CARBryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:32CHITroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:32CARBryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- LaRose – Tlusty – Sutter2:44
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Tlusty – Sutter8:02
xG 0.04–0.17 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner10:56
xG 0.35–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bodie – Samson7:45
xG 0.13–0.39 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Gleason15:34
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Allen – Harrison12:40
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – McBain16:38
xG 0.37–1.39 (21%)attempts 9–16goals 0–3
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Bolland – Bickell10:34
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Sharp – Toews – Kane13:44
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Dowell – Brouwer – Frolik9:08
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kopecky – Stalberg9:17
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson11:30
xG 1.09–0.33 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Campbell – Campoli15:50
xG 1.12–0.67 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Keith – Leddy16:45
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).