Fri, Mar 4, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 113 | 116 | 340 |
| CGY | 28 | 216 | 04 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45CBJCraig RivetAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:13CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Curtis Glencross, David Moss · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 8:57CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Rene Bourque, Cory Sarich · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 1:53CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kris Russell, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 8:48CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 10:09CGYCurtis GlencrossPPGWGAssists: Anton Babchuk, Alex Tanguay · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 6:34CBJJan HejdaAssists: Jakub Voracek, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:29CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P1 13:32CBJKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:07CBJAntoine Vermette: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 12:02CGYMark Giordano: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 14:33CBJJared Boll: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:19CGYTom Kostopoulos: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:25CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P3 5:58CBJRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:22CBJKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25CGYAnton Babchuk: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 11:05CGYTom Kostopoulos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Voracek – Calvert8:59
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Moreau – MacKenzie – Boll4:15
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Umberger – Nash – Upshall13:39
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett8:06
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Lepisto10:11
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Russell2:10
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Russell2:07
xG 0.00–0.03 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Glencross – Bourque6:01
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross4:31
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan4:27
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Moss4:22
xG 0.07–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano8:58
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Staios – Babchuk9:19
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester15:38
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).