Sat, Mar 5, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 313 | 213 | 535 |
| PHI | 210 | 113 | 013 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:44PHIKris VersteegPPAssists: Matt Carle, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 17:22PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:52BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:48BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Paul Gaustad, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:32BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Brad Boyes, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–2
- P2 13:23PHIKimmo TimonenSHAssists: Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 6:37BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 18:56BUFNathan GerbeENAssists: Paul Gaustad, Patrick Kaleta · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:58BUFCody McCormick: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:16PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:06PHIDarroll Powe: Interference2 min
- P1 10:57BUFShaone Morrisonn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:03BUFJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P2 4:49PHIChris Pronger: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:23BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:05PHIKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:14BUFRyan Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Pominville – Vanek6:34
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe6:03
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Pominville – Vanek3:06
xG 0.05–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Boyes – Ennis2:50
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Sekera15:33
xG 1.17–0.59 (67%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Butler – Myers13:05
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Leopold – Morrisonn12:28
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino9:18
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Betts – Nodl – Powe3:15
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Versteeg7:51
xG 0.13–0.25 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk8:22
xG 0.21–0.77 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- O'Donnell – Meszaros10:33
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Pronger – Carle14:25
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Timonen – Coburn11:28
xG 0.11–0.75 (13%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).