Sun, Mar 6, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 04 | 010 | 223 |
| CGY | 19 | 113 | 114 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47NSHMartin EratAssists: Jonathon Blum, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 7:15CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:58NSHRyan SuterAssists: Martin Erat, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 0:59CGYJarome IginlaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 10:23CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49CGYCory Sarich: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:26NSHJonathon Blum: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:59NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:32CGYFreddy Modin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:19NSHJerred Smithson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward12:13
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist13:39
xG 0.18–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Geoffrion – Halischuk – Wilson7:33
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:25
xG 0.10–0.38 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Blum10:43
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Klein – O'Brien3:04
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson11:36
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Moss11:51
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund7:08
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Modin – Hagman – Stajan8:19
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque12:50
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Babchuk12:29
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano14:06
xG 0.46–0.19 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Regehr – Bouwmeester17:07
xG 0.75–0.60 (55%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).