Mon, Mar 7, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 18 | 29 | 11 | 422 |
| LAK | 17 | 111 | 15 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39LAKWillie MitchellAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 6:47DALMike RibeiroAssists: Adam Burish, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:22LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Penner, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 1:57DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:41LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 5:20DALJamie BennSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:38DALBrenden MorrowGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:15DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:02LAKAlexei Ponikarovsky: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:48LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:48DALBrian Sutherby: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:43LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:43DALSteve Ott: Spearing5 min
- P1 17:43DALSteve Ott: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:59DALBrenden Morrow: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:10LAKMatt Greene: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:07DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:11LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Benn – Vincour5:28
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish9:32
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell4:29
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Langenbrunner – Eriksson – Benn4:39
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski14:48
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Skrastins – Fistric9:38
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley11:54
xG 0.55–1.18 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Penner – Kopitar10:32
xG 1.07–0.23 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford4:17
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds7:28
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Brown5:30
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson10:36
xG 1.19–0.07 (94%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Greene2:11
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty2:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).