Tue, Mar 8, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 113 | 16 | 04 | 02 | 225 |
| SJS | 110 | 17 | 013 | 13 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:17SJSRyane CloweAssists: Dany Heatley, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:22NSHJoel WardPPAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 4:17SJSJustin BraunPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:08NSHShea WeberPPAssists: David Legwand, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 3:24SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Ian White · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:29SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P1 13:29SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:34NSHShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:03SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36SJSJoe Thornton: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:27NSHPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward13:22
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Wilson12:22
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Dumont – Tootoo – Spaling4:46
xG 0.03–0.35 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Hornqvist – Halischuk6:10
xG 0.02–0.51 (4%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber20:53
xG 0.88–0.82 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Klein – O'Brien2:09
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum15:03
xG 0.52–0.86 (38%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell8:49
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins4:41
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi12:36
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture14:11
xG 0.73–0.87 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – White16:04
xG 1.05–0.20 (84%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Murray – Braun12:56
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers13:21
xG 0.53–0.97 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).