Wed, Mar 9, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 28 | 011 | 04 | 16 | 329 |
| CAR | 010 | 113 | 113 | 01 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22ATLRob SchrempPPAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 13:27ATLToby EnstromAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:55CARTroy BodieAssists: Bryan Allen, Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 12:21CARErik ColeAssists: Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 1:38ATLTim StapletonGWGAssists: Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:32CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:46ATLEric Boulton: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:19ATLBlake Wheeler: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:15CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:39ATLBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestSchremp – Stapleton – Kane3:24
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Thorburn – Stapleton2:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane3:17
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Boulton – Dvorak – Burmistrov2:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Stuart12:58
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Oduya – Stuart2:50
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Oduya – Postma6:40
xG 0.10–0.20 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Cole – Staal9:51
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Stillman – Ruutu – Staal6:21
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bodie – Samson3:39
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:08
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Harrison14:17
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen8:45
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain9:18
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).