Wed, Mar 9, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 114 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 331 |
| TBL | 210 | 17 | 09 | 04 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brett Clark · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:43CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:44TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 1:20TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Victor Hedman, Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 9:39CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 3:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 5. TBL Martin St. Louis scored
- 6. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:20TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:09CHITomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:03CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane15:56
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Dowell – Brouwer – Frolik3:26
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pisani – Dowell – Brouwer3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bickell – Frolik8:02
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson16:36
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Keith – Campoli8:36
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Leddy14:12
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bergenheim – Thompson5:25
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos16:53
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Gagne – Moore – Bergenheim2:42
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell4:45
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman15:08
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Hedman2:48
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin7:29
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).