Wed, Mar 9, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 310 | 04 | 013 | 07 | 2 | 434 |
| DAL | 18 | 115 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26CGYRene BourqueAssists: Curtis Glencross, Steve Staios · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:28CGYTom KostopoulosAssists: Tim Jackman, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P1 13:41CGYAnton BabchukUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P1 18:28DALJamie BennPPAssists: Steve Ott, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–1
- P2 5:12DALMike RibeiroAssists: Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 5:39DALTomas VincourAssists: Toby Petersen, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 4. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
- 6. CGY Curtis Glencross scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:05CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:38CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:00DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:32CGYCory Sarich: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Moss8:44
xG 1.28–0.24 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Backlund4:25
xG 0.63–0.05 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Modin – Hagman – Stajan7:25
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque9:06
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Babchuk8:10
xG 1.27–0.05 (96%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Sarich – Giordano13:21
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester10:57
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Wandell5:47
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Petersen – Benn2:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Vincour2:44
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn4:48
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Goligoski13:20
xG 0.17–0.53 (25%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Daley11:56
xG 0.19–0.85 (18%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric5:46
xG 0.07–0.77 (9%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).