Thu, Mar 10, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 012 | 213 | 239 |
| FLA | 07 | 011 | 116 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:12OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Filip Kuba, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 14:50OTTErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Bobby Butler, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 15:47FLAClay WilsonAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Michal Repik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:09FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 4:08FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:18OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P1 7:03FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:34OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:54OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:40OTTFrancis Lessard: Charging5 min
- P3 2:40OTTFrancis Lessard: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:37FLAMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shannon won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Smith10:51
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Lessard – Potulny – Winchester3:25
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler10:19
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra5:33
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson12:03
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Smith10:09
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee13:02
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Weiss – Bergfors7:55
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Samsonov – Booth2:38
xG 0.09–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Bergfors – Repik2:26
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Thomas – Timmins4:00
xG 0.05–0.06 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Kulikov2:43
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Wilson9:00
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison13:16
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).