Fri, Mar 11, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 112 | 08 | 228 |
| NYI | 011 | 118 | 313 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:29BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:02BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Tomas Kaberle · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 19:58NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 1:28NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo, Milan Jurcina · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:58NYIJack HillenGWGAssists: Radek Martinek, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:50NYIPA ParenteauENAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:25NYIJustin DiBenedetto: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:39BOSMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:13NYIKyle Okposo: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:28NYIMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
- P2 12:36NYIFrans Nielsen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:45BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12BOSNathan Horton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Bergeron – Peverley – Marchand5:40
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:57
xG 0.44–0.49 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:42
xG 0.69–0.78 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Kelly9:06
xG 0.20–0.84 (19%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Boychuk4:14
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kaberle – McQuaid5:05
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk4:59
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:33
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Konopka – Haley – DiBenedetto5:32
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:45
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin9:22
xG 0.33–0.81 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen14:39
xG 1.09–0.76 (59%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Gervais12:45
xG 1.02–0.74 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:01
xG 1.04–0.95 (52%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).