Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Atlanta Thrashers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 010 | 011 | 418 | 12 | 541 |
| PHI | 14 | 28 | 112 | 00 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:11PHIVille LeinoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 4:21PHIKimmo TimonenSHAssists: Mike Richards, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.40 xG0–2
- P2 14:22PHIVille LeinoPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–3
- P3 1:09ATLEvander KaneAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 12:15ATLZach BogosianAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:32PHIVille LeinoPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.00 xG2–4
- P3 17:01ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Anthony Stewart, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:15ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 1:17ATLRon HainseyGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Anthony Stewart · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:03PHIDaniel Brière: Diving2 min
- P1 19:03ATLToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 3:34PHIDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:47ATLTim Stapleton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:32PHISean O'Donnell: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:53ATLMark Stuart: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P3 16:50PHIKris Versteeg: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little13:47
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Stapleton – Kane8:15
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Antropov – Thorburn – Stewart8:12
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart10:59
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien3:50
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian13:18
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino13:09
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe7:17
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Carcillo – Versteeg10:02
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk14:12
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boynton – Carle17:18
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn15:11
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros17:14
xG 0.49–1.25 (28%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).