Sun, Mar 13, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 112 | 19 | 00 | 330 |
| WSH | 210 | 014 | 112 | 16 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46CHINick LeddyAssists: Marian Hossa, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:11WSHBoyd GordonSHAssists: Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:06WSHJason ArnottPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 3:09CHITomas KopeckyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:23WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Matt Hendricks, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:21CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–3
- OT 3:51WSHMike KnubleGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:26WSHMike Knuble: Interference2 min
- P1 5:53WSHMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:21CHIBryan Bickell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:09WSHBoyd Gordon: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:28CHITomas Kopecky: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:41WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:41CHIBrent Seabrook: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:10WSHMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kopecky – Stalberg6:39
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Hossa – Brouwer – Frolik2:45
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pisani – Dowell – Brouwer8:50
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bickell – Frolik8:43
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Campoli6:06
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Campoli – Seabrook3:12
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook3:01
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Johansson13:49
xG 1.14–0.65 (64%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Arnott – Sturm – Semin11:26
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon7:34
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr6:57
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Erskine11:39
xG 1.29–0.42 (76%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:41
xG 1.18–0.39 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Wideman – Schultz15:19
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).