Tue, Mar 15, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 09 | 011 | 133 |
| BUF | 022 | 010 | 08 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:17CARBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Derek Joslin, Chad LaRose · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:17CARTuomo Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:17BUFMark Mancari: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:22BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:56BUFRob Niedermayer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 0:00CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:16BUFAndrej Sekera: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:11BUFNathan Gerbe: Diving2 min
- P3 2:44CARDrayson Bowman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:50CARErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 8:10BUFThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:19BUFSteve Montador: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner5:38
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Jokinen2:47
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Jokinen – Skinner3:58
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bowman – Samson4:17
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Pitkanen13:16
xG 0.91–0.22 (80%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Allen – Joslin9:14
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
- Gleason – Harrison10:19
xG 0.42–0.98 (30%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Pominville – Vanek6:18
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis8:01
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe6:04
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Gerbe2:16
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador12:18
xG 1.15–0.73 (61%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Morrisonn – Weber10:21
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Sekera – Myers11:29
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).