Wed, Mar 16, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 19 | 010 | 228 |
| DET | 210 | 016 | 19 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:23DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Brian Rafalski, Todd Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:56WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jason Chimera, DJ King · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:45DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brian Rafalski, Mike Modano · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 5:53WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Alexander Semin, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:53DETHenrik ZetterbergPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:34DETHenrik Zetterberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:05DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:32WSHBoyd Gordon: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:21DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08DETTomas Holmstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:20WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Semin – Ovechkin8:33
xG 0.39–0.32 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Sturm – Laich – Semin2:55
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bradley – Gordon – King6:19
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Sturm – Johansson5:20
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:26
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Hannan – Wideman7:40
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Hannan – Schultz2:31
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg13:28
xG 0.75–0.33 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Modano – Filppula – Abdelkader8:52
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen9:15
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Draper – Hudler – Helm7:30
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kindl12:20
xG 0.55–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:16
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Rafalski3:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).