Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Atlanta Thrashers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 17 | 111 | 01 | 0 | 324 |
| ATL | 18 | 212 | 03 | 02 | 2 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59ATLTim StapletonAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:20PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Matt Carle, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:35ATLBryan LittleAssists: Ron Hainsey, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:30PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:52ATLNik AntropovAssists: Chris Thorburn, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:32PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Ville Leino, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 2. PHI Mike Richards stopped
- 3. ATL Rob Schremp scored
- 4. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 5. ATL Blake Wheeler scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:25ATLChris Thorburn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:25PHIDaniel Carcillo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:53PHIAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:03ATLMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:03PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:04ATLRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P2 19:57ATLDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P3 5:34PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:15PHISean O'Donnell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino6:41
xG 0.72–0.13 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Carcillo – Versteeg3:09
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Carter – Giroux5:03
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk2:36
xG 0.07–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Gustafsson6:09
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros15:48
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle2:10
xG 0.07–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:48
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Antropov – Thorburn9:03
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Schremp – Burmistrov4:20
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Kane9:43
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian2:09
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian16:49
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien16:53
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).