Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 011 | 08 | 227 |
| CBJ | 014 | 010 | 013 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 11:23DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Mike Modano · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:52DETDrew Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:52CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:43CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:39DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:42CBJMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:10CBJRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:52DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:05CBJAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:36DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:36CBJKris Russell: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:51DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:22DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54DETJohan Franzen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Voracek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Helm5:53
xG 0.91–0.09 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen7:20
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Modano – Filppula – Abdelkader6:08
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg10:04
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart10:47
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Stuart – Ericsson3:39
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:19
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett6:16
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Nash – Voracek2:27
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert4:13
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek7:25
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Lepisto11:42
xG 0.35–0.31 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot8:30
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Clitsome2:43
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).