Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 111 | 114 | 03 | 1 | 237 |
| MTL | 012 | 19 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:35TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–0
- P2 5:40MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: David Desharnais, Ryan White · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 3:58MTLBrian GiontaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 9:29TBLSimon GagnePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brett Clark · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Nigel Dawes scored
- 2. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 3. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
- 4. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 5. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 6. TBL Simon Gagne scored
- 7. MTL Michael Cammalleri scored
- 8. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:13TBLSimon Gagne: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:13TBLMattias Ohlund: Interference2 min
- P1 18:49MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:51TBLVincent Lecavalier: Slashing5 min
- P1 19:51MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:51TBLVincent Lecavalier: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:07MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:58MTLBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P3 6:58MTLBenoit Pouliot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Bergenheim – Stamkos2:51
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell4:42
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Ritola4:12
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:39
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Clark8:30
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Hedman4:46
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman7:26
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White5:46
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dawes – Pyatt – Palushaj2:57
xG 0.05–0.32 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen10:52
xG 0.71–1.15 (38%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Kostitsyn – Eller10:23
xG 0.02–0.61 (3%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Subban12:48
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Weber2:02
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski14:15
xG 0.66–0.82 (44%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).