Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 011 | 113 | 134 |
| OTT | 19 | 03 | 213 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02OTTRyan ShannonPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:55OTTChris NeilGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 5:02NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Jacob Josefson, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:22OTTChris NeilENAssists: Jason Spezza, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:58NJDPatrik Elias: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:09NJDAnton Volchenkov: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:34OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 4:36OTTColin Greening: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:13NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri9:19
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Zajac – Tedenby2:01
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus10:53
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Tedenby – Josefson7:33
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne13:41
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 23–4goals 0–0
- White – Tallinder2:50
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- White – Volchenkov11:59
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSvatos – Shannon – Condra6:59
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lessard – Wick – Winchester4:59
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith12:12
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler9:28
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kuba – Karlsson15:38
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Hale12:43
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee12:05
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).