Thu, Mar 17, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 011 | 06 | 024 |
| FLA | 08 | 311 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49FLASergei SamsonovGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 5:11FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Michal Repik · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:31FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.42 xG0–3
- P3 16:36FLAKeaton EllerbyENAssists: Ryan Carter · Slap, 0.47 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:59FLAMichal Repik: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:15FLAMike Duco: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:12FLADarcy Hordichuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:06TORNikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:40TORDion Phaneuf: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:10FLARyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:10TORKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:14FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P3 5:49FLAMichal Repik: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:25FLAKeaton Ellerby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Brent – Kadri2:36
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:57
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown5:21
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Crabb – Boyce – Bozak7:00
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Aulie12:22
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lebda – Schenn3:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn11:00
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Repik8:50
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors13:10
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Rissmiller – Carter3:05
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Santorelli – Duco6:07
xG 0.13–0.19 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison16:13
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Callahan – Wilson11:38
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov14:14
xG 0.39–0.48 (44%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).