Thu, Mar 17, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 07 | 05 | 023 |
| DAL | 18 | 212 | 27 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:37DALSteve OttGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:01DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:35DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Benn, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 2:54DALJason WilliamsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 11:52DALBrandon SegalAssists: Brad Richards, Tomas Vincour · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:17CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P1 12:50DALJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:07CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:05CHIBrent Seabrook: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:27DALTomas Vincour: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:58CHIDuncan Keith: Charging2 min
- P2 13:32DALJason Williams: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51CHITroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:50CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:50CHIJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kopecky – Stalberg3:47
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kopecky – Brouwer2:15
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane7:58
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Brouwer – Frolik3:31
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy8:46
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook2:38
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Keith – Campoli4:20
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:50
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell7:05
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Segal2:44
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Richards – Ott10:36
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann13:28
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Goligoski12:59
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley11:58
xG 0.19–0.50 (28%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).