Thu, Mar 17, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 04 | 115 | 229 |
| CGY | 313 | 010 | 25 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Rene Bourque · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:15CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Ales Kotalik · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 7:35COLMark OlverAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Wilson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 19:42CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 4:36CGYAles KotalikAssists: Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 6:35CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Curtis Glencross, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 19:54COLCody McLeodPPAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:05COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:02COLRyan O'Reilly: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P1 9:07COLJohn-Michael Liles: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:19CGYRene Bourque: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:12COLJonas Holos: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57CGYTim Jackman: Interference2 min
- P3 13:53COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:53CGYRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:21CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:35CGYRobyn Regehr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Winnik – Olver – Duchene11:52
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Dupuis – Porter2:27
xG 0.02–0.04 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Porter – McLeod3:45
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Yip – O'Reilly5:47
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Wilson3:06
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Holos2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson8:34
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKotalik – Hagman – Stajan8:19
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Iginla – Glencross – Backlund8:41
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Bouma7:48
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Tanguay – Bourque10:12
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester12:44
xG 0.75–0.12 (87%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Sarich – Giordano11:06
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Staios – Babchuk13:15
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).