Sat, Mar 19, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 24 | 01 | 2 | 421 |
| FLA | 08 | 28 | 113 | 03 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:14NYIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 11:18FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Clay Wilson, David Booth · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:28FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 7:09NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:50NYIMicheal HaleyAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 13:26FLAStephen WeissAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. FLA Sergei Samsonov stopped
- 4. NYI PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:03NYIJesse Joensuu: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:47FLAMichal Repik: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:55NYIJesse Joensuu: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:05FLARyan Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13FLADmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:13NYIBlake Comeau: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:16NYIBruno Gervais: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:16FLARyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- OT 4:31NYIAndrew MacDonald: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Haley – Martin7:09
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:03
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–3
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:23
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey9:14
xG 0.05–0.36 (13%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:54
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Martinek – Gervais14:49
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Hillen15:41
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Repik4:40
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Dadonov5:40
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Bernier – Santorelli – Dadonov3:20
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Rissmiller – Carter2:22
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison17:32
xG 1.27–0.50 (72%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Ellerby – Kulikov13:13
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Callahan – Wilson13:04
xG 0.35–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).