Sun, Mar 20, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 8, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 413 | 28 | 832 |
| MIN | 012 | 08 | 111 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31MTLRyan WhiteAssists: Benoit Pouliot, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:47MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:51MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: David Desharnais, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 5:22MTLJames WisniewskiAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Alex Auld · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 7:35MTLTravis MoenAssists: Scott Gomez, Roman Hamrlik · Backhand, 0.29 xG5–0
- P2 16:23MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.02 xG6–0
- P3 1:27MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Ryan White, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.02 xG7–0
- P3 12:14MINMikko KoivuUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG7–1
- P3 13:55MTLTom PyattAssists: Brian Gionta, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.06 xG8–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:31MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:31MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:06MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:05MINBrad Staubitz: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:01MTLAaron Palushaj: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:46MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:22MINAntti Miettinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:21MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:51MTLPaul Mara: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:51MTLPaul Mara: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:51MINCal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:52MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – White7:33
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 3–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen8:40
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Kostitsyn – Eller11:17
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Dawes – Pyatt – Palushaj6:20
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski15:17
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- Gill – Subban12:50
xG 0.58–0.27 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Picard – Subban3:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu6:22
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Nystrom – Staubitz4:31
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Madden – Clutterbuck5:54
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–3
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak5:36
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon12:27
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Zanon – Prosser14:14
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns12:55
xG 0.30–0.55 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).